Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Syria civil war: This week could be decisive for US involvement

Secretary of State John Kerry travels to Moscow to discuss international pressure on Syria, following Israel?s targeted airstrikes on Damascus over the weekend.

By Howard LaFranchi,?Staff writer / May 6, 2013

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel (r.) welcomes Secretary of State John Kerry to his office at the Pentagon in Washington, Monday. Hagel invited Kerry to the Pentagon for a working lunch to discuss a range of national security issues.

Susan Walsh/AP

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With President Obama dispatching Secretary of State John Kerry to Moscow even as Israel launches targeted airstrikes on Damascus, this could turn out to be a decisive week for US involvement in the Syrian conflict.

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Mr. Obama has long sought to keep the United States out of what would likely be an attention-consuming, domestically unpopular, and ultimately inconclusive US intervention in Syria?s civil war. But with the war reaching new levels of violence and now seriously threatening to spill over into a regional conflict, the president may have little choice but to reverse course and intervene in some way.

What, if anything, Secretary Kerry is able to work out with the Russians in terms of international pressure on Syria, and where Israel?s weekend strikes lead in the coming days, are likely to alter the course of US action. In any event, both components are part of a scenario of suddenly expanding pressure on Obama to move decisively on Syria.

?This is a risk-averse president ? rightly so in this case, I would add ? being pulled closer and closer to some kind of intervention,? says Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington.

?At some point he?ll push it a step further? and decide what to do, Mr. Miller says ? perhaps choosing from a set of options administration officials are presenting that range from arming the rebels to establishing a no-fly zone over northern Syria.

But Obama is as keenly aware as anyone that there are no good options for resolving the Syrian crisis, says Miller, a former State Department adviser on Middle East issues with experience in both Democratic and Republican administrations.

?Whatever the US decides to do, it won?t be precipitous action? that somehow brings to an end, he says, a 2-year-old war that has left 76,000 Syrians dead and hardened internal divisions to the breaking point.

An ongoing debate in the administration over whether to intervene ? and if so, in what manner ? has shifted in recent weeks in favor of some form of intervention, some US officials say. At a Pentagon press conference last week, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said the US was in the process of ?rethink[ing] all options.?

That shift, prompted in part by evidence that chemical weapons were used in the conflict, could accelerate, they add, if there are signs of a dangerous expansion of the war into a broader conflict.

On Sunday, Israel reportedly struck targets in Syria twice, in one case hitting missiles thought to be destined for Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Shiite Muslim organization that is actively aiding Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in his fight with largely Sunni rebels. Israel has long said its top concern in the Syrian conflict is the potential for transfer of weaponry to its enemies.??

Kerry, who will meet in Moscow with President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, could use the latest events in Syria to try to extract a more cooperative stance from Russia, which continues to shield Mr. Assad from international pressure to step down and make way for a political transition.

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/sNBJQ0-iOdk/Syria-civil-war-This-week-could-be-decisive-for-US-involvement

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