The importance of the NFL Combine has recently shifted in the public's eye. Once viewed as a crucial piece of the evaluation process, it is now more of a media spectacle. The significance lies in the eye of the beholder, of course. In the NFL, teams value test results and measurements differently. What happens behind closed doors may actually impact prospects' draft value more than any stopwatch.
(Here's a look at the official 2012 Scouting Combine schedule.)
All-Important Interviews
NFL front office personnel arrive in Indianapolis armed with thorough background information on every prospect courtesy of college coaches and trainers. Participants with histories of off-field issues must understand this and be truthful during interviews. Two Oklahoma prospects, OLB/DE Ronnell Lewis and CB Jamell Fleming, struggled with academics (and disagreements with coaches in Lewis' case) that cost them playing time in college. In some cases, book smarts and football intelligence are unrelated, but each instance is worth researching.
One method is to put players, especially quarterbacks, in front of a whiteboard. Teams present a situation or play versus a certain look and ask prospects to regurgitate information on a clean slate. Russell Wilson (Wisconsin), B.J. Coleman (UT-Chattanooga), and Austin Davis (Southern Miss) should shine in these scenarios, as all three responded immediately to NFL coaching at their respective all-star games. The whiteboard is important for every position (Boise State WR Austin Pettis excelled last year), and an outstanding showing can pique an evaluator's interest just like test numbers.
Many seniors completed interviews at postseason all-star games, but the Combine is underclassmen's first exposure to NFL questioning. This year's obvious question mark is Arizona State ILB Vontaze Burfict, who failed to improve in college despite guidance from former veteran NFL coaches, with whom he consistently clashed. Tennessee/McNeese State DB Janzen Jackson and Oregon CB Cliff Harris are former top high school recruits with outstanding athleticism, but were dismissed from their college teams due to off-field issues.
Other cases include Alabama CB Dre Kirkpatrick, who still needs to answer every question about his dropped marijuana charge, North Carolina early entry DE Donte Paige-Moss, who took to Twitter to call out his team, coaches, and school after their bowl game, and Miami DE Olivier Vernon, who was suspended following the Nevin Shapiro benefits fiasco. These interviews are a crucial piece in a team's thought process when deciding whether to draft an "upside" player with character concerns. If failed, prospects can be removed from draft boards entirely (see Florida's Will Hill).
Medical Checks
Teams give prospects do-not-draft grades for extensive medical history just as they do for character concerns. The majority of clubs bring medical staffs to poke and prod players, putting each through a physical before taking the field. The relationship between the decision maker and lead medical trainer must be built on trust and understanding. The last thing a General Manager wants is to waste a draft pick on a player that will rarely practice. Three receivers who were highly touted before their senior seasons face uphill battles to clear their names from the "fragile" list: Nick Toon (Wisconsin), Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma), and Greg Childs (Arkansas).
Florida State OT Andrew Datko and Nebraska DT Jared Crick both missed the majority of their senior seasons due to injury. Datko played through a shoulder injury until he was shut down, while Crick suffered a torn pectoral muscle. Separation, through use of the upper body, is a key part of both players' games. Datko and Crick could reappear prominently in draft discussion if cleared medically.
Measuring In
Senior Bowl weigh-ins revealed that Russell Wilson stands shorter than 5'11". Moving from Mobile to Indianapolis, the spotlight will be on Baylor QB Robert Griffin III, who I expect to measure in right over 6'2". Wilson and Griffin come from different college offenses, and Griffin would ideally be about two inches taller, but both flash the awareness and footwork to find clear throwing lanes as well as an ability to throw on the move. They are not limited to the pocket but surely can be efficient in it.
For linemen, arm length may be most important. If I had to guess, I'd tab Syracuse DE Chandler Jones as the favorite to measure in with the longest arms. Jones is lanky and uncoordinated, but he may be a completely different-looking player a few years from now. There is a frame to build on.
It's a hunch from watching his game tape, but I expect Memphis DT Dontari Poe to be at the opposite end of the spectrum from Jones in terms of arm length. Just keep in mind that long arms are not necessary for a nose tackle, especially one as athletic as Poe.
The importance of the NFL Combine has recently shifted in the public's eye. Once viewed as a crucial piece of the evaluation process, it is now more of a media spectacle. The significance lies in the eye of the beholder, of course. In the NFL, teams value test results and measurements differently. What happens behind closed doors may actually impact prospects' draft value more than any stopwatch.
(Here's a look at the official 2012 Scouting Combine schedule.)
All-Important Interviews
NFL front office personnel arrive in Indianapolis armed with thorough background information on every prospect courtesy of college coaches and trainers. Participants with histories of off-field issues must understand this and be truthful during interviews. Two Oklahoma prospects, OLB/DE Ronnell Lewis and CB Jamell Fleming, struggled with academics (and disagreements with coaches in Lewis' case) that cost them playing time in college. In some cases, book smarts and football intelligence are unrelated, but each instance is worth researching.
One method is to put players, especially quarterbacks, in front of a whiteboard. Teams present a situation or play versus a certain look and ask prospects to regurgitate information on a clean slate. Russell Wilson (Wisconsin), B.J. Coleman (UT-Chattanooga), and Austin Davis (Southern Miss) should shine in these scenarios, as all three responded immediately to NFL coaching at their respective all-star games. The whiteboard is important for every position (Boise State WR Austin Pettis excelled last year), and an outstanding showing can pique an evaluator's interest just like test numbers.
Many seniors completed interviews at postseason all-star games, but the Combine is underclassmen's first exposure to NFL questioning. This year's obvious question mark is Arizona State ILB Vontaze Burfict, who failed to improve in college despite guidance from former veteran NFL coaches, with whom he consistently clashed. Tennessee/McNeese State DB Janzen Jackson and Oregon CB Cliff Harris are former top high school recruits with outstanding athleticism, but were dismissed from their college teams due to off-field issues.
Other cases include Alabama CB Dre Kirkpatrick, who still needs to answer every question about his dropped marijuana charge, North Carolina early entry DE Donte Paige-Moss, who took to Twitter to call out his team, coaches, and school after their bowl game, and Miami DE Olivier Vernon, who was suspended following the Nevin Shapiro benefits fiasco. These interviews are a crucial piece in a team's thought process when deciding whether to draft an "upside" player with character concerns. If failed, prospects can be removed from draft boards entirely (see Florida's Will Hill).
Medical Checks
Teams give prospects do-not-draft grades for extensive medical history just as they do for character concerns. The majority of clubs bring medical staffs to poke and prod players, putting each through a physical before taking the field. The relationship between the decision maker and lead medical trainer must be built on trust and understanding. The last thing a General Manager wants is to waste a draft pick on a player that will rarely practice. Three receivers who were highly touted before their senior seasons face uphill battles to clear their names from the "fragile" list: Nick Toon (Wisconsin), Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma), and Greg Childs (Arkansas).
Florida State OT Andrew Datko and Nebraska DT Jared Crick both missed the majority of their senior seasons due to injury. Datko played through a shoulder injury until he was shut down, while Crick suffered a torn pectoral muscle. Separation, through use of the upper body, is a key part of both players' games. Datko and Crick could reappear prominently in draft discussion if cleared medically.
Measuring In
Senior Bowl weigh-ins revealed that Russell Wilson stands shorter than 5'11". Moving from Mobile to Indianapolis, the spotlight will be on Baylor QB Robert Griffin III, who I expect to measure in right over 6'2". Wilson and Griffin come from different college offenses, and Griffin would ideally be about two inches taller, but both flash the awareness and footwork to find clear throwing lanes as well as an ability to throw on the move. They are not limited to the pocket but surely can be efficient in it.
For linemen, arm length may be most important. If I had to guess, I'd tab Syracuse DE Chandler Jones as the favorite to measure in with the longest arms. Jones is lanky and uncoordinated, but he may be a completely different-looking player a few years from now. There is a frame to build on.
It's a hunch from watching his game tape, but I expect Memphis DT Dontari Poe to be at the opposite end of the spectrum from Jones in terms of arm length. Just keep in mind that long arms are not necessary for a nose tackle, especially one as athletic as Poe.
Speed Kills
General opinion has Kendall Wright (Baylor), Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State), Michael Floyd (Notre Dame), and Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina) in some order as the 2012 draft's top four wide receivers. Disagreements are common, but in some ways I still think receivers are linked to a stopwatch, and it shows in terms of burst, quickness, and straight-line speed. "Play speed" is most important, of course, but from watching their games I see Blackmon and Floyd playing in the 4.55-4.65 range, Jeffery in the 4.7+ range, and Wright at 4.35-4.45. Wright will surely pique the interest of fans tuning into Combine forty-yard dashes. He's already caught the attention of NFL teams.
Without pads, Indianapolis can turn into a glorified track meet. But it's always entertaining to see whether the top long-speed performers are the ones who can actually play. Florida WR/RB Chris Rainey, who played receiver at the Senior Bowl, North Carolina State WR/KR T.J. Graham, Oregon RB LaMichael James, Miami KR Travis Benjamin, Miami RB Lamar Miller, Virginia Tech RB David Wilson, and LSU CB Ron Brooks are all in the running for the top spot in speed tests.
Another player certain to test well is North Carolina LB Zach Brown, who holds the Tar Heels' 60-meter indoor track record. Keep in mind Brown plays without physicality on the field. His hands resemble pillows on contact, instead of delivering a solid pop.
Short-Area Quickness
Though it fails to account for upper-body strength and skills, the 20-yard shuttle effectively showcases which offensive linemen have an ability to bend, plant, and burst quickly in their lower body as well as move in open space. This is important because nimble linemen can react and redirect against quick-twitch pass rushers. Since 2006, Eagles C Jason Kelce, Raiders C Samson Satele, Panthers C Ryan Kalil, Patriots OT Nate Solder, Jets C Nick Mangold, and Colts OT Anthony Castonzo make up six of the top seven clocked times in the 20-yard shuttle. USC OT Matt Kalil and Iowa OT Riley Reiff's athletic playing styles will likely translate well in this test.
Much is made of a pass rusher's initial upfield get-off, but an ability to plant and quickly change direction can be equally effective. The 3-cone drill puts different types of pass rushers on an equal playing field. Since 2006, physical rushers like Cardinals OLB Sam Acho, Texans OLB Connor Barwin, Texans DE J.J. Watt, and Vikings DE Brian Robison make up the majority of the top six 3-cone times with Lions DE Cliff Avril directly behind. In this class, Marshall DE Vinny Curry, Boise State DE Shea McClellin, Mississippi State DT Fletcher Cox, and Oklahoma DE/OLB Ronnell Lewis exhibit short-area quickness when working around offensive linemen.
Position Switches
Two seniors that will make the switch from defensive end to linebacker stick out because they have limited experience in that area. Pittsburgh DE Brandon Lindsey looked out of place at 4-3 outside 'backer during East-West Shrine practices, but displayed a nice upfield move and length off the edge. It was shocking that West Virginia DE Bruce Irvin was not invited to the Senior Bowl. After being miscast at defensive end in the Mountaineers' 3-3-5 scheme, Irvin's best role will be situational pass rusher early in his pro career. Irvin lacks counter moves, but may flash in movement drills. He plays like a running back when rushing the quarterback, consistently avoiding contact.
Air It Out
Stanford's Andrew Luck, Baylor's Robert Griffin III, and Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill will not throw in Indianapolis, opening the door for Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State), Kirk Cousins (Michigan State), Nick Foles (Arizona), and Brock Osweiler (Arizona State) to make an impression. I expect Weeden and Cousins to look the best, Foles to flash arm talent but look uncoordinated in his drops, and Osweiler to show decent footwork but underwhelm with arm talent. Perhaps Osweiler will surprise, but he lacks both the necessary accuracy to lead receivers and velocity due to an erratic release. Misses against air are expected. Cam Newton was heavily criticized for overthrowing sideline outs in Indy last year, of course, so take reviews of these performances with a grain of salt.
Positional Precision
I am a big fan of the Gauntlet drill, where pass catchers are forced to secure multiple throws while running in a straight line across the width of the field. Most notably, I look for receivers that struggled to consistently catch the football during their college careers due to locating, laziness, or lack of hand-eye coordination. Three that stand out are Arizona's Juron Criner, North Carolina's Dwight Jones, and Texas A&M's Jeff Fuller, all big bodies that lose focus on easy catches or high targets. It may be the biggest knock on all three.
I'll also be watching to see whether Appalachian State's Brian Quick can rebound from his shaky Senior Bowl performance, where he dropped a couple balls each day. Quick can really locate the football, especially on high targets, so his unreliable hands surprised me. Check out Quick's game versus Virginia Tech to see his immense potential. Another receiver to watch is Stephen Hill, who may catch more passes at the Combine than he did during his entire career in Georgia Tech's option offense. I expect Kendall Wright, LSU's Rueben Randle, Rutgers' Mohamed Sanu, and Cal's Marvin Jones to show very reliable hands in every drill, even on poorly thrown passes.
Source: http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39950/60/2012-nfl-combine-preview
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